COVID-19 Death and Case Rates in NYC

This project analyzes the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City using three key metrics: death rate, case rate, and percentage of deaths per positive case. The data for this analysis include Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) boundary data from NYC Open Data and COVID-19 case and mortality data from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH). After obtaining the datasets, I cleaned and joined them in ArcGIS Pro using the ZCTA code as the linking field. I then calculated the death rate and case rate per 100,000 residents for each ZIP code to standardize comparisons across areas with different population sizes. The use of rates instead of raw counts allows for meaningful comparisons between ZIP codes. Areas with larger populations would naturally have more cases and deaths, so expressing the data as rates per 100,000 residents normalizes for population differences and highlights the true relative impact of COVID-19 across each zip code.

Figure 1: COVID-19 death rates in NYC

Figure 2: COVID-19 case rates in NYC

The first map (figure 1) shows that the highest COVID-19 death rates were found primarily outside of Manhattan, particularly in southern Brooklyn, northern Queens, the Bronx, and parts of Staten Island. Neighborhoods such as Brighton Beach and East New York experienced especially high death rates. Manhattan, by contrast, recorded much lower death rates, suggesting that income, access to healthcare, and demographic composition influenced the severity of outcomes. Each of the five boroughs features distinct demographics and socioeconomic profiles. Of the five boroughs, Staten Island had the highest median household income ($86,054), followed by Manhattan ($84,435), Queens ($73,262), Brooklyn ($67,567), and the Bronx ($43,011). The second map (figure 2) indicates that Staten Island had the highest concentration of COVID-19 cases. Similar to the death rate pattern, Manhattan displayed a much lower case rate compared to the other boroughs, further suggesting that socioeconomic status and access to healthcare played a role in limiting disease spread.

Figure 3 : Percent of positive COVID-19 cases resulting in death in NYC

The third map (figure 3), showing the percentage of positive COVID-19 cases resulting in death, indicates clear geographic disparities across New York City. Staten Island contains the largest cluster of ZIP codes with high fatality percentages. There is also a notable cluster in the percentage of COVID-19–related fatalities in southern Brooklyn, centering around Brighton Beach and Gravesend. Parts of Queens and the Bronx also consistently show high fatality percentages, while Manhattan remains one of the lowest-risk areas in the city. These variations may be due to underlying demographic and socioeconomic factors, such as higher proportions of senior populations and limited access to healthcare. In contrast, areas with lower fatality rates generally have greater healthcare access and higher median household incomes.

The biggest discrepancy can be seen in Staten Island. This borough exhibits high COVID-19 case and positivity rates, but death rates are more localized and not as elevated relative to the number of positive cases. Staten Island had fewer COVID-19 deaths despite the widespread transmission in the area, likely due to its residents' higher median income compared to the other boroughs. Outer boroughs such as the Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island all generally faced higher impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic than Manhattan did, furthering the idea that higher income leads to better healthcare and, therefore, lower transmission and death rates. Overall, the three maps depicting the COVID-19 case rates, death rates, and the percentage of positive tests illustrate how the five boroughs of New York were affected by the pandemic and how income levels influenced these outcomes.

Sources

https://data.cccnewyork.org/data/map/66/medianincomes#66/39/2/107/127/a/a

Census Data: United States Census Bureau https://data.census.gov/advanced

NYC Data: NYC Open Data Portal https://opendata.cityofnewyork.us/

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